Iran ICBM: Update

An Iranian source published a video on 24 May 2025 purporting to demonstrate Iran’s ICBM potential.

Introduction

On 1st August 2024, I published “Iran’s ICBM program,” on how the Qaʾim-100 could be tranformed into the Qaʾim-105 ICBM (i.e., 10,000 km, minimum range, to reach the eastern seaboard of the U.S.). The video published 24 May 2025 claims Khorramshahr-3, launched from nuclear-hardened launch sites, could deliver 400kg HE (high-explosive) warheads to America’s east coast cities. The 400kg HE is because Iran claims not to possess nuclear warheads. In any event, salvoes of 400 kg HE warheads can wreak havoc on compact and densely-populated cities as D.C., NYC, Boston, and Philadelphia. In light of Trump’s threat in 2020 to strike Iranian cities, ICBMs, even with HE, have deterrent value.

Khorramshahr-1, -2, and -4

The Khorramshahr family of ballistic missiles has three known variants: Khorramshahr-1, Khorramshahr-2, and Khorramshahr-4. The Khorramshahr-4 model was revealed circa 24/25 May 2023. The jump, from Khorramshahr-2 to Khorramshahr-4, was puzzling; but the video published 24 May 2025 explains the purpose: Khorramshahr-3 is ICBM capable.

Khorramshahr-3

I shall leave the two videos below to speak to (1) the hardened launch centers; and (2) details on how Khorramshahr-3 is ICBM capable.

Conclusions

It is no coincidence that the Khorramshahr-3 video was released during U.S.-Iran talks; however, absent a verifiable test flight of the Khorramshahr-3 covering a minimum distance of 10,000, with intact re-entry, the claim remains in the realm of theory. It is worth noting that around 8 Nov 2024, a ballistic missile test from the Shahroud missile test facility in eastern Iran generated speculation in analytical sources that it was an ICBM test (see video below).