The Ayatollah’s Red Lines

In a series of fiery tweets, Ayatollah Khamenei demarcated Iran’s red lines. Trump has two choices: violate his own red lines or go to war.

Vladimir Putin: “negotiating with Trump is like playing chess with a pigeon. The bird knocks over the pieces, craps on the board, declares victory and flies away.”

—Journalist, Pepe Escobar, 2020—

Playing Chess with a Pigeon

Iran holds consistent positions vis-à-vis its nuclear program: no dismantlement of its program (the “Libya Model” favored by Israel); no shipping of enriched Uranium overseas (as with the 2015 JCPOA); but Tehran is willing to reduce future enrichment to 3.67% from 60% highly-enriched Uranium (90% “HEU” is weapons-grade, but 60% HEU can also be used for nuclear warheads). 3.67% is the minimum requirement for non-military nuclear purposes.

American positions have shifted with the tides. “We will not allow even 1%…”; “we will allow 3.67%”; “we are no longer asking for zero enrichment”; “we are demanding zero enrichment.” On 3 June, Trump tweeted (in all CAPS, of course): “WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM.”

The Ayatollah Begs to Differ

Ayatollah Khamenei’s tweets of 4 June are tantamount to telling Trump—in New York slang— “to take a long walk on a short pier.”

“A few years ago, one of the US presidents said he would dismantle the nuts & bolts of Iran’s nuclear industry if he could. Of course, he admitted that he couldn’t. Those in power today – the Zionists and the Americans—should know that they can’t do a damn thing in this area.”

Money quote from Ayatollah Khamenei

Other Key Statements

• “The number of countries in the world that have achieved a complete nuclear fuel cycle is perhaps fewer than the number of fingers on a person’s two hands. The Iranian youth and scientists have achieved this.”
• “Thanks to the intelligence of our youth and the dedication of our scientists, Iran has succeeded in achieving a complete nuclear fuel cycle. So today, we’re capable of producing nuclear fuel starting from the mine and all the way to the power plant.”
• “Enemies have concentrated their efforts on our uranium enrichment. A nuclear industry without enrichment capabilities is useless, because we would then be dependent on others to obtain fuel for our power plants.”
• “The US’s main demand is that they don’t want Iran to even have a nuclear industry. They want you to be reliant on them for radiopharmaceuticals, energy, desalination equipment, and in tens of other critical sectors.”
• “Thousands of nuclear scientists & researchers have been trained in Iran. Should we disappoint them, make them unemployed, & take away their hope in our country’s future? The rude, insolent US leaders want this. They’re opposed to progress & self-sufficiency for the Iranian ppl.”
• “To the American side and others we say: Why are you interfering and trying to say whether Iran should have uranium enrichment or not? That’s none of your business.”
• “You Americans possess atomic bombs and have the massive destruction of the world at your disposal. What business is it of yours whether the Iranian nation should or shouldn’t have uranium enrichment or whether it should or shouldn’t have a nuclear industry?”

Conclusions

Ayatollah Khamenei’s tone and statements reflect confidence in Iran’s ability to overcome the U.S. and Israel should they choose the military option. The sentence, “they can’t do a damn thing in this area,” reflects confidence. Trump must decide: erase his own red lines? Or go to war?