Arab states are being pummeled by Iran and the US is not helping them. Gulf Arabs have realized that the Washington Mafia took their “protection money” but never intended to protect them. Breach of contract. Even the Genovese crime family that ran my NYC neighborhood met their obligations. Arab states will fall under Iran’s sway.
NB: this is a revised version of my Twitter/X post that received about 116,000 views (so far).
“Experts” on Why Iran is Attacking Gulf Arab States
Former CIA Director John Brennan opined,1 “Iran is throwing everything they have at nearby targets…” Media claims Iran is “lashing out” or “retaliating.” Initiation of the US-Israel war triggered a “booby trap”—a pre-determined plan, which is unfolding in the Persian Gulf. Iran “expert” Prof. Ali Ansari (University of St Andrews): “The Iranian response has been more eclectic and random than most imagined, targeting almost every country in the region – including Oman – and overturning any modest achievements they have had in building diplomatic relations with their near neighbours.” They are all clueless. Iran has a strategy that began unfolding immediately after the war commenced.
US Bases in the Persian Gulf
American bases in the Persian Gulf were expanded or added after 9/11 to support GWOT (2001–2021) and to “contain Iran.” After GWOT ended (2021), American bases were not shuttered (as many Americans wanted); on the contrary, the bases thrived and even expanded. For example, Duqm Port, Oman, was just expanded to accommodate aircraft carriers and submarines. Bahrain, which had served as HQ for the Fifth Fleet since 1995, became a major naval hub after 2003. Evidently, the US presence in the Persian Gulf was to be permanent.
No real country under persistent threat by foreign powers—harsh rhetoric (“regime threat,” “kill the Ayatollah, etc,); “maximum pressure” sanctions; sneak attack by Israel followed by bombings by US in June 2025 (then a very fragile ceasefire)—will allow this threat to continue indefinitely. Russia initiated its Special Military Operation in 2022 due to (1) NATO’s eastward expansion and (2) buildup of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The US had a propert fit about Soviets being parked in Cuba but Iran is supposed to accept permanent threats in its backyard?
Existential Threat
Tehran assessed the Twelve-Day War as a “manageable threat.” The war was thus managed accordingly. “Strategic deterrence” demanded calibrated responses where no US troops were hurt or bases struck. A ceasefire was reached. However, Trump’s and Netanyahu’s belligerent rhetoric; Israeli, US/UK/EU machinations (“Snapback,” etc.); foreign-sponsored riots in January; and the military buildup in Jordan and the Persian Gulf, changed Tehran’s threat assessment. Iran—not just the Islamic Republic of Iran—faced an “existential threat.” Publicly-stated plans by US and Israel to partition Iran, ipso facto, constitute an “existential threat.” Iran shifted its posture to “strategic offense.”
Educating the Gulf Arabs
Gulf Arab states hosting US bases paid trillions in “protection money” to the Washington Mafia by hosting bases, investing in the US and buying overpriced weapons systems. Iran, however, knew that at crunch time, US cared only for Israel. The Arabs were just vassals; their fate was irrelevant.
Iran’s attacks opened Arab eyes: Bahrainis, Kuwaitis, Saudis, Qataris, and Emiratis complained that the US was not using it air forces and air defenses to protecting the; and expressed shock that US not willing to sell (or give) them interceptors for the overpriced toys they had purchased from the US.
Gulf Arabs have realized that the “Mob” took their “protection money” but never intended to protect them. Breach of contract. Even the Genovese crime family that ran my NYC neighborhood met their obligations.
Arab Treachery
Gulf Arab states (Khalijis) developed with trillions in investments and oil & gas revenues while Iran was strangled by sanctions. Khalijis, notably KSA and UAE, feigned friendship with Iran but conspired against it. King Abdallah’s leaked advice to US, “cut off the head of the snake,” and MBZ’s involvement in manipulating Iran’s 2025 currency crisis, reflect backroom deals with Washington. Arab regimes, Tehran realized, had to re-orient their alignments: away from US and towards Iran; or alternatively, (2) become neutral states.
Iran’s Strikes
Iranian strikes on military and economic targets in Gulf Arab states have three principal objectives: (1) destroy US bases, airfields, radars, and ports such that major investments (billions of dollars) will be required before the American installations return to the status quo ante bellum; (2) re-orient the minds of Khalijis (make them fear Iran’s wrath and treat Iran with respect); (3) prevent US from having bases near Iran during the (ongoing) war.
No. 3 (above) comports with Iran’s “Anti-Access/Area Denial” strategy. To illustrate, if hypothetically DOD mustered 100,000 troops to invade Iran, from where will they enter? Afghanistan is gone; bases in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Oman have disappeared (or soon will). Turkey has made it clear that it wants no part of this war. US cannot invade by land or amphibiously without nearby bases, ports, and airfields.
Iran is telling the Gulf Arabs: “we can all have security and prosperity after the Yanks are gone, but if the Yanks return, you will not have security or peace. If you refuse to eject US bases, your cities will be re-landscaped by our missiles and drones.”
Saudi, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, facing massive revenue shortfalls, are exploring whther “force majeure” contract clauses will allow them to exit major contracts. They are realizing that hosting US bases do not bring prosperity, just unnecessary hardships. Dubai is losing $1 mil./min. (tourism, hotels, DBX, duty-free shopping, oil, gas, etc.). How long will MBZ allow this to continue? Meanwhile, the only regime change Washington is likely to get is in Bahrain, where Saudi and Bahraini forces are trying to quash a Shia uprising.
- Brennan is a political hack who became DCI. In his long career as a CIA case officer, he failed to recruit a single agent. This is like an insurance salesman who has never sold a policy but was promoted to “Head of Sales.” ↩︎
Perspectives 