Iran is beating US like a drum and advancing its strategy, but Washington’s control of the media narrative is thwarting realization of Iran’s goals. Pre-war, Tehran set five objectives to force concessions from the Trump Regime. None have been met as yet because DC is shaping the narrative. Once the media dam breaks, Iran’s goals will be realized.
“We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media.”
—Ayman al-Zawahiri—
Five Objectives
Tehran established five objectives before the war that it knows will pressure the Trump Regime into accepting Iran’s demands. Not one of these objectives has been met. Yet.
(1) US Military Killed: Tehran noted that the US is “sensitive” to military casualties; hence it established a loose pre-war target of “four to five hundred” troops returning to the USA in flag-draped caskets.
(2) US Prisoners: Iran recalls the hell they put Jimmy Carter through for 444 days. POWs on TV will pressure Trump. Moreover, POWs are bargaining chips for post-war settlement discussions. No POWs taken as yet.
(3) Visible Damage: Realistically, Iran hoped for photographs and videos of damaged US Navy vessels and downed USAF aircraft. Trump’s recent freakout over media reports of five KC-135 that were damaged in KSA; and coverup by the DOD of the shootdown of the KC-135 in Iraq, expose Washington’s fears. The “Forrestal-style” fire on the USS Ford and hasty retreat of USS Lincoln could be due to Iranian actions; but no images = never happened.
(4) Energy Markets: Iran was aiming for $150/bbl, but the US Treasury is manipulating oil futures, resulting in the current $45–50 difference between real crude oil prices and paper prices. Energy shortages have jacked up gasoline, diesel, and gas prices, especially in Asia, leading countries to ration gas and fuel. Aviation fuel prices have skyrocketed. However, until the supply and demand disparity is reflected in commodities markets, this objective has failed.
(5) Equity Markets: This is the grand prize. Crash the FTSE, Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, etc. Hit American voters in their IRA, pension, and 401(k) accounts. Iran sets peace terms when US/EU/UK pocketbooks hurt and voters start squealing. Until oil futures prices reflect market realities, equity markets will sleepwalk.
Assessment
Applying al-Zawahiri’s formula, Iran is handily winning the first 50%: the actual battlespace. But it is not winning the other 50%: the media battlespace.
US control over legacy media narratives is holding. IG, FB, and TikTok (USA) are under kosher control. X/Twitter is purging accounts that are posting real-time intelligence on the Persian Gulf and Israel. NY Times, WaPO, Guardian, Daily Telegraph, etc., doing what they always do. Thus, many voters are not being informed about the disaster that Trump created for the United States and its Armed Forces.
Those who follow reliable accounts on X and Telegram know just how badly the war is going for US, but until the low-IQ crowd in middle America that gets its daily slop from Fox, CNN, Rachel Maddow, or Jon Steward realizes how bad it is, the war is not going badly. Big disconnect between reality and perception.
Note
Apologies, but not much posting on this site lately because events are moving fast, and I have been busy. However, I post once or twice daily on X/Twitter. You can find me there: @S_Mahendrarajah
Perspectives 