Is Iran pursuing a “madman strategy”? Or do the generals have a coherent strategy that they relentlessly pursue, while pivoting and/or climbing up the escalatory ladder as circumstances warrant? For, e.g., after the South Pars gas field was bombed by US-Israel?
Strategy
Firstly, as I wrote in “Iran’s Ball Game: Strikes on Arab States” Iran is pursuing pre-planned and coherent strategy. Secondly, as explained in “Iran’s Decentralized Mosaic Defense,” “Mosaic” is designed for flexibility—there are shot callers who change tactics and operations as circumstances warrant, for, e.g., swift retaliation for the US-Israel bombing of South Pars—and they did so with a strong escalatory jump that shook the enemy.
Otherwise, however, the generals methodically pursue their strategy of (1) denuding the Middle East of US bases; and (2) demilitarizing and destabilizing Israel. The combined offensive campaign (i.e., Arabs + Israel + USA) has revealed three (overlapping) phases: destroy the enemy’s (i) radars, air defense batteries, and intelligence and military hubs in Iraq and GCC; (ii) political, diplomatic, and economic centers in GCC and Iraq (e.g., CIA stations, US embassies, US corporate holdings in UAE and KSA); (iii) military infrastructure in Israel (factories, bases, airfields, etc.).
Generalship
I shall write over the course of the war about strategy and escalation ladders, but first, it is important that we get to know the people leading the fight for Iran. I focus on two aspects: courage and intellect.
Courage manifests in boldness—brass balls to shock the Pentagon by striking two nuclear armed powers and multiple Arab countries within minutes of Ayatollah Khamenei’s assassination. Cf. Russia, which has not hit neighboring NATO bases despite their involvement in the Ukraine War.
Intellect manifests in their ability to formulate strategy and manage logistics; and then craft tactics and operations that advance their pre-planned objectives (cf. US generals).
Courage
American generals assuredly see their Iranian counterparts as a bunch of scruffy, chubby old guys devoted to Allah and Ayatollah Khomeini. Appearances are deceiving. Almost every (current or recently deceased) general over 55 served in the Iran-Iraq War. The war was horrific: WWI-style trench warfare and chemical warfare; WWII-style artillery and tank duels, and urban warfare (e.g., Battle of Khorramshahr).
Most of the generals were young men who secured battlefield promotions because the beggar in front got shot. Speaker of Parliament M.B. Qalibaf, for e.g., became a general at 27! Iranian generals lead from the front. Artesh (Army) and Sipah (IRGC) lost >100 generals (1980–88) and 15–25 fighting ISIS (2014–18) See “Iranian Generalship.” Haji Qasem and his subordinates in Syria and Iraq were unlike our REMFs and commanders visiting bases in Iraq or Afghanistan: no space-alien body armor, no phalanx of bodyguards, no Predator overwatch.
This is what the US should expect. Not craziness or yearning for martyrdom, but boldness and adaptability. They learned to adapt on the battlefield and take calculated risks.
Intellect
American generals collect degrees. Nearly every general in GWOT had MA or PhD after his name. Degrees are credentials, not markers of wisdom, knowledge or expertise. American generals are a club of mediocrities. See “US Generalship and Iran: ‘Strategy? We don’t need no stinkin’ strategy’.”
Iranian generals did not attend West Point or earn doctorates at Princeton (e.g., David Petraeus), but know strategy, logistics, and warfare. Haji Qasem is a stellar example. He had to quit school as a teen and work as a laborer to help pay his peasant family’s debts to the Shah’s landlords. He joined Sipah in 1979, fought valiantly in the “Imposed War,” and attained the rank of Brig.-Gen. after the war. He studied military literature and helped devise Iran’s “Anti-Access/Area Denial” (A2/AD) strategy.
This explanation—in less than three minutes on logistics and strategy—by retired general Mohsen Rezaie drew praise (sorry: only available on Twitter/X).
Last Word
Can Whiskey Pete Hegseth or JCS Chair Gen. Dan Caine or CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper explain US strategy against Iran in three minutes? Twenty minutes? Iran is blessed to have incompetent enemies.
Perspectives 