Trump, having spent a decade insulting Obama over JCPOA, and for sending “pallets of cash” to Iran, is in a vise. He is refusing to concede “strategic defeat” and accept Iran’s terms for peace. Meanwhile, his Israeli master insists that he continue the war, and that more US troops die for Israel. A third round of war is likely. This time, however, Iranian Armed Forces will inflict “catastrophic defeat” on the US.
Trump vs. Obama
DJT continues to tweet endlessly about Obama—whom he refers to as “Barack Hussein Obama”—for making the “worst deal,” and how he will get “a better deal.” His tweet barrages and AI-generated memes are tiresome, leading sensible commentators to question his mental health. Trump is seeking an agreement whereby he can claim victory over Iran, and brag that his nuclear deal is better than Obama’s. Meanwhile, Satanyahu is yelling in his ear, “bomb them! Bomb them again!”
Trump has been jawboning the equity and energy markets for eight weeks by planting stories in Axios, al-Arabiya, and WSJ about a deal that never materializes: “we’re close,” “Trump is in the Situation Room reviewing the deal,” etc. Traders have not realized the scam; moreover, markets consider energy shortages to be a short-term blip. Reality will hit like a tsunami. Iran is patiently waiting for it.
Tehran is aware of Trump’s predicament and is not backing down from its terms: recognition of Iran’s lawful right to regulate the Straits of Hormuz (SoH) and charge tolls (renamed “fees” to satisfy Oman and China); reparations (estimated at $300 billion); withdrawal of US forces from the Persian Gulf; sanctions relief; and no nuclear negotiations “until later.”
Highly-Enriched Uranium
The Kremlin stated (28 May 2026), “stockpiles of highly enriched uranium belong to the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this connection, it is only up to Tehran to decide what happens to this material.” Moscow has positioned itself against Washington on the Iran nuclear file—a 180° reversal from its pre-Ramazan War position. Putin was the “snake in the woodpile,” conniving with Bush against Iran. He probably connived with Obama to extricate 11,000kg of Low-Enriched Uranium from Iran pursuant to JCPOA. Consequent to Iran’s thrashing of the US, the Kremlin has realized that Iran is a partner.
Beijing has not mirrored the Russian statement, but China is Iran’s only trusted partner. Beijing assuredly supports Tehran’s stance. Despite statements about the proliferation of nuclear weapons, Beijing will not object to Tehran possessing nuclear weapons (China’s partners, North Korea and Pakistan, have nuclear weapons). Indeed, Beijing may consider a nuclear arsenal critical for the survival of their most important Middle Eastern partner.
Where is Iran’s HEU?
According to IAEA (9 March 2026), <46% of 440.9kg 60% HEU was at Isfahan in before the Twelve-Day War: “What we believe is that Isfahan had until our last inspection a bit more than 200 kg, maybe a little bit more than that, of 60% uranium.” However, “[i]mages from an Airbus satellite show a truck loaded with 18 blue containers going into a tunnel at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center on June 9, 2025,” four days before the Twelve-Day War commenced. It is possible that Iran wanted the transfer to be seen by enemy satellites (it was done in daylight while the satellite passed).
If we assume ≈200 kg 60% HEU is at Isfahan, but the balance (≈240kg 60% HEU) is in safe hands, was it weaponized? ≈240kg 60% HEU enriched to “weapons-grade” → ≈180kg 90% HEU (7–9 warheads). Iran has warhead technology and proven delivery options (e.g., Sejjil & Khorramshahr–4).
Point of this exercise is that Iran has nuclear ambiguity. This is why Trump’s Israeli boss is worried. In my opinion, 440.9kg 60% HEU will never be relinquished or diluted: it’s Iran’s insurance policy against further adventurism by US and Israel.
A theory is that Iran may agree to negotiations with Trump on the nuclear file after a settlement of the war, but protract the talks until he gets bored. This is plausible: Trump has the attention span of a hamster!
Straits of Hormuz
SoH will not be opened without Iranian consent and will remain under the authority of Tehran. An Iranian military specialist wrote this excellent analysis, “How did Iran defy convention and control the Escalation Ladder?” It is only available on Twitter/X. The image shows Iran’s fire control supremacy over the Persian Gulf; and the oil, gas, and desalination infrastructure of Arab states subservient to the US.
If Trump continues the war, US clients (UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain) will pay the heaviest price. It is not possible to dislodge the hundreds of bases and launch points along Iran’s 1,400km/870 miles of coastline (1,800 km/1,120 miles, including the islands). Geography and geology favor Iran. Iran’s inventories of kamikaze drones and short-range ballistic missiles are virtually limitless. They can pound the Arab states back into the desert.
Strategic Defeat vs. Catastrophic Defeat
Iran inflicted a strategic defeat on the US by dismantling critical military infrastructure: radars, radomes, communications, and more. See, e.g., “Iran’s Strikes Rewrite USA’s Mideast Doctrine” and “Debacle in the Iranian Desert.” However, Iran did not inflict massive casualties on the US, take POWs, or sink Navy vessels. Iran was possibly following Sun Tzu’s dictum, “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”
Trump refuses to accept reality: US lost. The US military and intelligence community, however, appear to be leaking furiously to the Washington Post (twice), New York Times, NBC, and CNN about the extent of the damage to US bases. OSINT analysts suspect these leaks are to forestall a third US-Iran round.
If Trump authorizes a ground operation to seize Iranian territory, or Iran chooses to break the blockade, Iran will probably inflict on US a catastrophic defeat: mass casualties, stricken ships, POWs. Trump will, of course, lash out: Iranian civilians will pay a terrible price. But the US will flee the Middle East and the world will know that the US was defeated, and that Iran is a superpower.
Humiliating the US and capturing POWs improves Iran’s position: Tehran can exact a better settlement than currently possible: US Congress has to vote to lift the thousands of sanctions against Iran/Iranians, but Congress is owned by the Israeli Lobby. This headlock will only be broken when U.S. Servicemen are killed or captured by the Iranian Armed Forces.
Russia and China favor a battered and humiliated US. Iran may deliver it.
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