The war on Iran picked up where it left off on 8 April, with the Iranians denuding the region of US bases, forcing the US to relocate assets to Israel and Europe. The Iranian campaign has been brilliant and will be studied in military colleges.
US Bases
Iran continues to denude the region of US bases. The process began on 28 February and ceased on 8 April with the so-called ceasefire. This allowed the US to flood the region with new equipment in violation of the MOU; install replacement radars, including a radar on a balloon in Erbil, Iraq. Iran’s strikes, however, have been more intense than in the first phase. They have destroyed warehouses, radars, drones, transport aircraft, and fighter jets on the ground; and tellingly, are targeting living quarters on bases.
An excellent essay on Iran’s air war strategy is by Amerikanets (Twitter/X/Substack) who coined the term “Debasification,” the subject of his essay. Highly-recommended. It parallels arguments in my “Iran’s Ball Game: Strikes on Arab States” (6 March 2026).
Strikes by Iran and US
Strikes between 30 June and 22 July are summarized in this graphic by Arya Yadegaar (Twitter/X).
Iranian Strikes
The unfolding campaign is easier to follow in the three graphics by MenchOSINT (Twitter/X).
US Radars
Radars are critical, not only in the way we imagine. They track speed, altitude, and trajectory of missiles. Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) issues alerts when Iran launches missiles; however, SBIRS shows the general track of a missile. Absent ground radars to determine trajectory, etc., warning times fall to say, 1–2 minues (less than one minute for bases closer to Iran). There are plenty of videos on social media of US personnel scrambling to find shelter. Three casualties from the 17 July attack in Jordan were outside, with two inside their Containerized Housing Units (CHU).
I have been unable to locate a comprehensive list of radars destroyed by Iran since Trump broke the ceasefire. The list is long and I suspect most analysts have been unable to keep up. Ruined systems include AN/TPS-59 long-range air defense radar (Bahrain); AN/TPY-2 X-band missile defense radar (Ahmed al-Jaber Air Base, Jordan); and AN/FPS-132 ballistic missile early warning radar (Qatar).
Some of the recently-departed radars were replacements for systems destroyed between 28 February and 8 April. Their losses are not readily-replaceable. Firstly, the US Government does not replacement systems sitting in warehouses. Secondly, cost and build times are high. Thirdly, radars require Rare Earth Elements (REE) that China controls, which Beijing is blocking the US and its allies from acquiring.
Notes
Western media are claiming that Iran’s attacks are “more precise” and “Russia or China” must be helping Iran. The west refuses to accept that it is being beaten like a drum by a “backwards” and “Third World” country. Strikes have been precise since the day this war was imposed on Iran. Improvements in targeting are explained by experience, and the demise of numerous air defense radar systems.
US has been using MQ-9 Reaper/Predator “Medium Altitude Long Endurance” (MALE) drones for ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) and strikes inside Iran or from near Iran’s borders, to avoid losing manned aircraft that venture within range of Iran’s air defenses. However, Iran is depleting the (limited) US fleet—“Reaper Genocide”—as Amerikanets wagged. He just published a superb piece, “No Country for MALE Drones,” on the demise of the Reaper/Predator.
Iran has also been destroying or damaging Reapers and other drones on the ground. Yesterday, news broke that Iran had destroyed eight MQ-9 Reaper drones in Jordan that were still in their shipping boxes! Iran’s strategy of blinding the US is advancing on different fronts.
Apologies for not posting since June. I have two posts in the pipeline: the first is a 90-minute interview by Iran’s Foreign Minister Dr. Araghchi with Iranian media, where he discusses a range of issues; the second is about the life and multi-city funeral in Iraq and Iran for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.