On Tue. evening, 1 Sep., Trump, following Obama’s practices from AFPAK, bombed a wedding in Sirik, Iran, killing and injuring scores of men, women, and children. This has opened the gates for Iran to retaliate disproportionately. A “perfect storm”—economic and military—is brewing against the US. Will Tehran press its advantage?
Town of Sirik
Sirik (26° 30′ 59″ N, 57° 6′ 6″ E) in Hormozagan Province, sits across the Strait of Hormuz. On 1 September, a reception for a newly-wed Sunni couple in the Kuhestak area of Sirik was bombed. Five were killed, including one child. Seventy guests were injured.
The United States used a SLAM-ER missile, which has a “man-in-the-loop” guidance system. Its manufacturer, Boeing, claims it is the most accurate weapon in the US inventory. The attack on the wedding was undoubtedly an intentional war crime. Obama delighted in “murder by drone”; he is quoted as having said, “I’m good at killing people” (see YT video; on his abysmal record, see Obama’s Final Drone Strike Data). Obama ordered strikes on weddings in Yemen; Bush bombed weddings in Iraq and Afghanistan (Kakarak, Deh Bala, and Wech Baghtu); Trump is following established practices.
Iranian Retaliation
“No matter how insistent the American terrorist army is on its evil actions in the region, it must bear even greater and heavier consequences.”
Jordan
Jordan hosts the last major U.S. redoubts consequent to Iran’s rollback of bases in the Persian Gulf. Details have yet to emerge, but multiple US bases in Jordan took a licking. Camp Titin, on the Gulf of Aqaba, was supposed to be a haven for a US Marine Corps contingent. Videos show MEDEVAC helicopters lifting off from Titin following Iranian strikes. If claims in social media of high KIA and WIA at Titin are true, it will be a salutary departure for Iran. Analysts, including myself, have argued that unless Iran fills body bags with US soldiers, Washington will insist on remaining in West Asia for the benefit of Israel.
A Perfect Storm is Brewing
As I wrote on 24 August, “[a]n ‘economic D-Day’ is likely to land first on US beaches.” US SPR is at 291 million barrels (2 Sep), its lowest level since November 1982. Jawboning by Trump and his minions at Axios, FT, and WSJ about moving “zillions” of barrels through the Strait of Hormuz influence automated oil futures trading, and simple-minded oil traders. However, physical oil—the “molecules” that Speaker Qalibaf warned about—cannot be created or manipulated through press releases. More than 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been removed from the market since Iran sealed the Strait of Hormuz in March, and the Saudi-Yemen war was renewed in July.
Yields on US notes and bonds keep rising despite interventions by the US Treasury. The higher the yield the more the US has to pay in interest on its $40 trillion in debt (ibid.). Debt and rising yields are not exclusive to the US. Yields in Japan, UK, France, and Germany are at multi-decade highs due to energy prices from the Iran War, which has been fueling global inflation. Central banks and Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates. High bond yields are raising US mortgage rates to ≥7%. Home sales are falling (more sellers than buyers).
Stock markets have been behaving as if there is no tomorrow—“and the band played on”—comes to mind. Heavy shocks from the Iran War could cause equity markets to tumble heavily. Housing prices and values of retirements portfolios will follow.
Finish the Job
“Finish the job” is the neocon mantra vis-à-vis Iran, but Iranian conservatives also want to “finish the job.” Both are likely to get their wish, but only Iran will come out ahead. Iran has been playing a clever game of launching older missiles to further deplete US interceptor stocks. Offensive weapon inventories are also low. Logistical nightmares, evident in the buildup to the Iran War, will worsen; for example, airstrips at US bases in GCC cannot be used as they were in January and February 2026, or during the “ceasefire.” USN vessels “blockading” Iran are facing tremendous re-supply problems without NAS Bahrain.
Iran, meanwhile, has been repairing radar equipment and manufacturing drones and missiles. Moreover, the China-Iran direct rail link—uninspected by Mossad and CIA—used to run once per week before the war. It has been running 2–3 times per week since March 2026.
Iran has incentives to kickoff heavily against the US. If Iran kicks the US out of West Asia, this will leave Israel isolated and easier for Iran to manage over the long-term. Crashing U.S. equity markets and retirement portfolios before elections is a key goal. Midterm elections will be held in 61 days (3 November). Iran is watching the clock.
A factor worth considering is Russia: if Putin takes actions against NATO, twin shocks of Iran and Russia acting against US interests—apart from roiling global energy and equity markets—will present the White House and Pentagon with twin crises. They cannot manage one crisis; they will be paralyzed by two.
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