Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.
Iran’s Stake
Gesamtlösung for Iran’s US-Israel Frage
Negotiations will not yield the sanctions relief that Iran desires. Trump can offer some relief through executive orders, but for substantive relief, the US Knesset must first repeal anti-Iran legislation. Iran, given its bitter experiences with JCPOA, will insist on codification—a treaty under US Const. Art. II, § 2—but the Colony cannot offer Iran anything of substance without Home Office approval.
Only the “nuclear file” is being discussed between Iran and Israel (Witkoff and Kushner) in the Oman-mediated talks. If, hypothetically, minor sanctions relief emerges in exchange for minor concessions by Tehran, what will happen to the manifold anti-Iran projects that the US, UK, EU, and Israel have been advancing for five decades?
MEK, based in NATO-land (Albania), will continue its violent activities. Given MEK’s roles in the Twelve-Day War and foreign-sponsored riots of Jan. 2026, Tehran wants it neutralized. Thus so for Kurd (PJAK) and Baluch (Jaysh al-Adl) separatists. Monarchists, Iran International, Manoto TV, BBC Persian, etc. will fade to irrelevance if support is withdrawn.
Absent a Gesamtlösung (overall/comprehensive solution) of outstanding issues, the west will continue to delegitimize and destabilize Iran. Socio-economic discontent in Iran will simmer. How does Iran secure for itself a Gesamtlösung for its longstanding US-Israel Frage? See “Assessment” (below).
Russia’s Stake
The Kremlin “discovered” Iran in 2022. After JCPOA (2015), Russia invested virtually nothing in Iran (cf. China). Russia signed the INSTC agreement in 2000 but did nothing until the Ukraine War (2022) forced it to seek allies. Since 2023, Moscow has come to value its access to the Persian Gulf.
Who controls the Persian Gulf, therefore, is important to Moscow. The Kremlin does not want a US-controlled regime at its underbelly. Imagine Iran under US domination: proliferation of US military bases in Iran, CIA operations centers, and NSA listening posts; US agitation in the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan is already hostile and begging for a beating; Armenia and Georgia are shaky); US Navy controlling the Persian Gulf (Fifth Fleet HQ is in Bahrain) and closing the Persian Gulf to Russian naval—and possibly commercial—vessels.
China’s Stake
China has strategic interests in Iran. It is investing billions (unconfirmed reports claim $400 billion over the 25-year strategic agreement), and developed two rail lines from China to Iran via Central Asia. One railway became operational in June 2025. The other is under construction. The lines are China’s low-cost access to Iran and neighboring states (China has big plans for AFG and Iraq). But the railway has military value for Beijing: it is intended to ship Iranian crude oil to China if the US Navy harasses maritime shipments. US blockades of Venezuela and Cuba confirm the merit of China’s foresight. Relatedly, if Iran seals the Straits of Hormuz, China still receives oil and Iran keeps earning.
Imagine if Iran were under US domination: China loses its investments and access to Iran’s 92-million person market; and railway and maritime access to the Persian Gulf (cf. China has <$1 bil. invested in Israel; market of 9 mil. head).
China’s petroleum purchases are intentionally diversified: Russia (17.7%), Saudi (14%), Iran (14%), Iraq (11.50%), UAE (5.75%), Oman (6.23%); the balance from Angola and Brazil. If Iran falls, US can end/reduce Iranian oil sales to China and pressure Gulf Arab states to end/reduce exports, forcing China to depend on Russian oil & gas—dependency means erosion of Beijing’s preeminent position in its (new) partnership with the Kremlin.
Fun fact: If Iran falls, US will exploit its oil & gas and dominate global supplies (and thus pricing) and preserve the (dying) dollar as the global reserve currency. End of BRICS+
Who controls the Persian Gulf is critical for Beijing, too. China’s satellites delivered “Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance” (ISR)—“eyes and ears”—for Iran in the Twelve-Day War and is now helping track USS Lincoln. MizarVision’s scaled down images that we see on Twitter and Telegram are from China’s dual-use satellites (probably the Jilin-1 constellation). Several Iranian cargo flights from China were recently logged by OSINT flight trackers.
China will keep supporting Iran because it stands to lose if it does not; and for bonus points, Beijing is seriously ticked off at Israel-Taiwan military cooperation.
Assessment
Concentration of about one-third of the US Navy, big chunk of the USAF (drones, fighters, cargo planes, and ISR planes), and all the Patriot and THAAD batteries and interceptors that US could scrape together, and packing them into a few square kilometers within the 2,000km radius of Iran’s ballistic missiles is a gift—for Iran, China, and Russia—if they decide to accept the gift.
Iran: Iran will only receive a comprehensive deal if it beats Israel like a drum, forcing Netanyahu to order Governor-General Trump and the US Knesset to offer Iran a peace treaty. Dmitri Medvedev wrote (31 July 2024): “a full-scale war is the only way to a shaky peace in the region.”
Russia: Military deliveries from Russia to Iran continue, but Su-35 jets are missing from action. Unless Putin sends Russian Air Force jets from the Caucasus—possibly with Iranian Air Force markings—to engage USAF and IDF, there is little Russia can do militarily. Russian ISR support is negligible relative to PLA’s; however, Russia has HUMINT assets in Israel (SVR agents among 1 mil. Israelis from ex-USSR). Russia knows there is value to destroying US assets in the Middle East: NATO, already crumbling, will fall apart once it becomes clear that Europeans cannot hide behind US’s skirts and poke the bear.
China: Beijing has everything to gain by letting Iran loose on the US. China can take Taiwan without firing a shot or losing a single soldier if Iran bloodies the US. How stupid would the Taiwanese have to be to rely on a military that couldn’t defend Israel?
Last Thoughts
A senior Russian analytical voice said, “we must stop this ‘America First juggernaut’ before it comes for us,” echoing Ben Franklin’s “we must all hang together or we will all hang separately.” Ali Larijani had productive meetings with Putin and Kremlin officials. Another senior Iranian official was in Beijing.
I thought about Ayatollah Khamenei’s fiery words of 17 Feb. I tend to dismiss Iranian bombast: while Beijing keeps mum and gets things done, Tehran is “full of sound and fury….” But this a.m., I thought more about his words. “Does the Ayatollah know something we don’t?”
Perspectives 