History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.
Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?
Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?
This is an updated post. A third video has been released by Hizballah of their Hudhud ISR UAV penetrating deep into Occupied Palestine and acquiring imagery of sensitive intelligence and military assets of the Israel Occupation Force. Like the first two surveillance videos, this, too has caused “shock and awe” in Israel. Fresh commentary and four videos are at my website.
Information is just coming in on the “Yafa” (“Jaffa”; called “Tel Aviv” by Israelis) UAV that struck near the U.S. Consulate in Tel Aviv on Friday, 19 July 2024, ca. 3:10 a.m. Preliminary details on the “kamikaze” drone, along with three videos, are in the article.
Link below to my article on impending Hizballah-Israel War. Main points (for wargamers): (1) This is a “War of Choice” for Israel, but a “War of Necessity” for Hizballah and Iran; (2) 2024 is not 2006: new technologies and tactics will be unveiled; (3) Israeli intelligence is overrated; (4) fear ye not Israeli nukes; (5) expect U.S. involvement; (6) Russia’s role: Iran is “too big to fail”; Russia has economic and military investments with Tehran. Will it intervene? Putin has indicated support for a proxy war to payback the US for proxy war against Russia.
Preliminary thoughts on the Iranian presidential election runoff concluded on 5 July 2024.
“Arrogance and ignorance shaped OPG [Op Prosperity Guardian]….OPG exposes failures in American intellect and imagination. It was formed with the premise that ships developed for the Cold War era have relevance to warfare of today. US Navy prepared for sea battles like Leyte Gulf (1944), not battles in the Red Sea. Failure of intellect and imagination is not limited to the Navy, but the Pentagon.” Follow this link to link to article.
Mary Renault is justly lauded as a groundbreaking LGBT authoress, but this detracts from her brilliance as a historian of ancient Greece and Persia. She methodically weaves history, geography, and Greek literature with fiction to depict the life of Alexander the Great: his childhood, love for Hephaistion, Philip’s court, tempestuous relationship with mum, Olympias, rise to power, and conquest of Asia. Renault’s books, which I started reading as a twelve-year-old, shaped my life, and developed in me, inter alia, a passion for Iran. The essay is part literary criticism, part history, part travelogue. Renault inspired my travels in Iran.
Friday, 31 May 2024, Ansarallah claimed two direct hits on USS Eisenhower, which was in the Red Sea protecting Israel’s economic lifelines with American lives. Since Friday, Eisenhower and its captain have acted in ways that suggest there is truth to the Yemeni claim. Families of Ike's crew claim they have been unable to communicate with relatives on-board, suggesting a security clampdown is in effect.
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