Iran-Israel War and the Midget King of Jordan

Israel’s 25/26 October 2024 strike on Iran depended heavily on access by IDF aircraft to Jordanian airspace. Jordan defended Israel in April and October by activating the “Arab Dome”—Jordanian air defenses—during Operation True Promise I and II. It is clear to Tehran that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a threat to its security. The next Israeli air attack to traverse Jordanian airspace could deliver nuclear devices. The King of Jordan is the problem. Should Iran de-stabilize the Kingdom and/or decapitate the Midget King

Strategikon of Maurice: Book XI, § 1, “Dealing with the Persians”

Strategikon, a practical military manual of lasting influence, is attributed to Maurice (r. 582–602), last of the Justinian emperors of Byzantine. His chapter on the Persians (Iranians) is revealing of mindset vis-à-vis Iranian fortitude and patience; and military and diplomatic strategies. This holds true today. I have reproduced in pertinent part two paragraphs from Strategikon with annotations that relate to the current military situation.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Fork in the Road?

A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?

Democratization of Warfare: Iran Edition

I published an essay “Democratization of Warfare: Abrams vs. Ghoul” in March. This update relates to the impending clash between Iran and Israel/U.S. Will Iran be able to overwhelm Israeli and American defenses?

Ruminations on Iran’s Retaliation

Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.

Kiev’s Kursk Incursion and Implications for Iran

Vladimir Putin is incensed by Kiev’s recent incursion into Kursk, which surely had NATO/US support. He has pledged to support America’s enemies. If NATO/US can supply Ukraine and say, “it doesn’t matter how they [the weapons] are used,” Russia can also supply “someone with something [and say] we do not control anything.” Game on!

On Escalation Domination, High-Value Targets, and Black Swans

As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.

Russia-Iran Military Exchanges: Part 4

Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?

Iran’s ICBM Program

Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?

Hizballah Surveillance Capabilities (Updated Post)

This is an updated post. A third video has been released by Hizballah of their Hudhud ISR UAV penetrating deep into Occupied Palestine and acquiring imagery of sensitive intelligence and military assets of the Israel Occupation Force. Like the first two surveillance videos, this, too has caused “shock and awe” in Israel. Fresh commentary and four videos are at my website.