Category: Warfare and Technology

Trump Must Exclude E3 from U.S.-Iran Talks

Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.

Iran-Russia Strategic Cooperation Agreement

Signed 17 January 2025, Kremlin, Moscow, between Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. The agreement had been negotiated for years, but the U.S.-NATO imposed war on Russia, and decades-long U.S.-Israel economic war imposed on Iran, added impetus to negotiations and shaped the agreement. The full text has been published. The partnership includes military and intelligence cooperation in addition to economic, energy, and science and technology cooperation.

Iran’s Assad Calculus: Actual Costs of Support vs Benefits to Iran

The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.

FBI Scrubbing “Most Wanted” List of al-Jawlani, leader of HTS

The FBI is scubbing its “Most Wanted” list of references to Muhammad al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayʾat a Tahir al-Shams (HTS)—the principal power in post-Assad Syria. He was the emir of Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate in Syria. An image of his “Most Wanted” poster has been preserved, along with a link not yet deleted by the FBI. al-Jawlani is being presented to the public as “rebel,” and according to an interview he recently did with CNN, “a kinder, gentler, and woker” Islamist! Ya Allah!

NATO’s Proxy War on Russia: “Tell Me How This Ends”

When David Petraeus was asked by a journalist at the onset of the Iraq War on the outcome, he replied “Tell Me How This Ends.” A bold but reasonable prediction by me on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War: it will not end through any settlement proposed by Trump. It will end with an unambiguous Russian military victory over Ukraine—NATO’s “battering ram” against Russia.