History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Trump’s “minerals deal” is a “nothingburger.” The bulk of Ukraine’s natural resources (oil, gas, diverse metals, etc.) are, or will be, under Russian control. There is nothing the USA, UK, and EU can do to change reality on the battlefield. The minerals in “rump Ukraine” can be exploited after the war, but the deposits are assuredly less valuable than the natural resources of “former Ukraine” that Russia will acquire.
Russia’s non-delivery to Iran of twenty-five Su–35 multirole fighters may be indicative of Russia’s reluctance to overtly arm Iran at a moment when Iran is threatened by Israel and U.S., thereby antagonizing Israel’s primary protector just when U.S.-Russia negotiations could yield diplomatic and economic benefits to Russia.
Trump has re-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei closed the JCPOA file. Where does Iran go from here? The U.S. oil embargo on Japan and Pearl Harbor suggest military scenarios.
Oh, goody. Finally, a war that I can fully support! Brief comments on The Washington Post “leak” is below.
Yalta Conference (Crimea), 8–11 February 1945, was handily won by Stalin due to superior intelligence provided by NKGB on British and American thinking.
Popular analyses claim Iran is “weaker than it has even been since the Islamic Revolution” and the “fabled” Axis of Resistance has been badly damaged. Time is ripe for U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Others, building on these pedestrian analyses, claim Iran is desperate for a nuclear deal and sanctions relief. But while Iran does need relief, Israel and U.S. need an accommodation with Iran because they cannot defeat Iran militarily. E3 must be excluded from negotiations with Iran because it will derail talks. U.S. and Iran must talk directly.
Signed 17 January 2025, Kremlin, Moscow, between Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. The agreement had been negotiated for years, but the U.S.-NATO imposed war on Russia, and decades-long U.S.-Israel economic war imposed on Iran, added impetus to negotiations and shaped the agreement. The full text has been published. The partnership includes military and intelligence cooperation in addition to economic, energy, and science and technology cooperation.
Trump’s firing of anti-Iran hawk Brian Hook and appointment of Michael DiMino as Dep. Sec. of Defense (Middle East) have angered anti-Iran elements in U.S. and Israel. Is Trump shifting his stance on Iran?
The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.
The FBI is scubbing its “Most Wanted” list of references to Muhammad al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayʾat a Tahir al-Shams (HTS)—the principal power in post-Assad Syria. He was the emir of Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate in Syria. An image of his “Most Wanted” poster has been preserved, along with a link not yet deleted by the FBI. al-Jawlani is being presented to the public as “rebel,” and according to an interview he recently did with CNN, “a kinder, gentler, and woker” Islamist! Ya Allah!
Perspectives 
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