History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Iran employs a “Decentralized Mosaic Defense” (difaʿ-i muzayiki) command-and-control (2C) structure: “decapitations” have minimal impacts on 2C. This is evident from Iran’s control of the escalation ladder, and the calibrated responses advancing Iran’s strategic objectives. Notes and observations on difaʿ-i muzayiki.
US and Israel view assassinations as a straight line to “victory.” But killing leaders and generals will not collapse nation-states with sound political-military structures. The assumption that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) rests on a “cult of personality”—Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei—is facile. Assassinations have unintended consequences.
Iran now treats hostile rhetoric as casus belli—preemption is on the table. As nuclear and missile programs recover, could Tehran launch blitz to shatter Israel’s OODA loop and paralyze its inner rings before Tel Aviv can move? First mover seizes initiative…
Deaths of Iranian generals in the Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) and war against ISIS (2014–18) prove that Iranian Army and IRGC generals lead from the front. Whereas U.S. generals lead from behind: Vietnam (11 KIA); Iraq (0); AFG (1: REMF, killed in the rear). On 13 June, when Israel murdered almost two dozen generals, Iranian Armed Forces swiftly re-grouped and retaliated. The Iranian military is accustomed to losing generals in action and has planned for losses.
China’s satellite network provides Iran with 24/7/365 coverage and real-time updates: SIGINT, terrain mapping, telemetry; radar, optical, and infrared all-weather/day & night imaging, allowing Iran to precisely strike Israeli and U.S. targets. No China, no “boom, boom, Tel Aviv!”
Analysis of SM-2, SM-3, SM-6, PAC-3, and THAAD interceptors used (10/23 to 08/25), costs, and remaining stockpiles. If Iran enters round two of the Iran-Israel War holding nuclear deterrence, Iranian missile barrages can pound Israel into capitulation.
Iran assisted U.S. militarily following 9/11, but after Israel derailed Iran-U.S. rapprochement, IRGC’s roles in liberating Afghanistan were concealed by U.S.
Tel Aviv thought the Islamic Republic would collapse with some strike operations, targeted assassinations, and car bombs. Instead, the Israelis are getting a historic battering as Iranians rally fiercely behind their government and armed forces (link to article at external site).
Iran won. Trump’s confidant, Steve Bannon, explains on video. My amplifications in essay.
Israel wants end to war; Iran plans to prolong war. Israel cannot survive without help; but Iran is prepared to fight alone and grind Israel into capitulating. Israel discovers that “plans don’t survive first contact with the enemy.” Netanyahu dials 1-800-USA HELP.
Perspectives 
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