History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
New York Times: “Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia,” examines Operation Rough Rider— the failed air campaign—against Yemen. Key takeaways vis-à-vis US-Israel air campaign against Iran. Gist: Iran holds the “trump” cards.
U.S.-Iran talks in Muscat and Rome have faltered due to shifting American demands, and Israeli machinations to derail an agreement. What are Iran’s choices? A decisive Iranian victory in a war with U.S. and Israel may be Tehran’s only path to permanent peace.
Russia’s non-delivery to Iran of twenty-five Su–35 multirole fighters may be indicative of Russia’s reluctance to overtly arm Iran at a moment when Iran is threatened by Israel and U.S., thereby antagonizing Israel’s primary protector just when U.S.-Russia negotiations could yield diplomatic and economic benefits to Russia.
Trump has re-imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei closed the JCPOA file. Where does Iran go from here? The U.S. oil embargo on Japan and Pearl Harbor suggest military scenarios.
Oh, goody. Finally, a war that I can fully support! Brief comments on The Washington Post “leak” is below.
Israel’s real gripe is that Iran is a nationalist, non-vassal state with 90 million literate and educated people. If Iran is allowed to freely develop, it will become an economic and military superpower. Hence, permanent sanctions to hobble Iran. In the absence of diplomacy, Tehran has only one path left: war with Israel and U.S.
“Trump’s exploratory outreach to Iran, presented as a clean slate, stands in stark contrast to the turbulence of his hawkish first term. Is this a sincere effort at diplomacy or a calculated salvo to throw his opponents off guard?” My essay, published by Cradle Media, can be accessed at the link published on my site. For copyright reasons, I cannot post the full text. Thanks.
Trump’s firing of anti-Iran hawk Brian Hook and appointment of Michael DiMino as Dep. Sec. of Defense (Middle East) have angered anti-Iran elements in U.S. and Israel. Is Trump shifting his stance on Iran?
Rashid Khalidi’s statement that the Axis (AoR) “was designed by Iran to protect the Iranian regime. . . . It wasn’t designed to protect Palestine,” is ahistorical on multiple levels, but raises questions such as (1) who is in/out of AoR?; and (2) what is Iran’s strategic goal?; how will AoR help Iran achieve its objectives?
The fall of the House of Assad is not a debacle for Iran nor the death knell for the Axis of Resistance. Hizballah will thrive despite the fall of Assad, who was not pulling his weight. Iran appears to have conducted a cost-benefit analysis and determined that the financial and human costs of remaining in Syria and underwriting the Assad regime outweighed strategic and military benefits. Most relationships have inherent timers; the Assad-Iran marriage was ready for dissolution.
Perspectives 
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