History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Talk about talks are a ploy to calm global energy and equity markets and to create the illusion that “peace is around the corner.” Trump’s five-day pause coincides with market close on Friday, 27 March. US and Israel are expected to begin intense operations after the close. Iran’s position has been clarified. War continues until Trump accepts reality.
Is Iran pursuing a “madman strategy”? Or do the generals have a coherent strategy that they relentlessly pursue, while pivoting and/or climbing up the escalatory ladder as circumstances warrant? For, e.g., after the South Pars gas field was bombed by US-Israel?
Iran is beating US like a drum and advancing its strategy, but Washington’s control of the media narrative is thwarting realization of Iran’s goals. Pre-war, Tehran set five objectives to force concessions from the Trump Regime. None have been met as yet because DC is shaping the narrative. Once the media dam breaks, Iran’s goals will be realized.
A hasty roundup for those not following the right Twitter/X and Telegram channels. The war is going swimmingly for US and Israel. Iranian civilians and infrastructure are being targeted by the frustrated enemy, but (1) US bases in Persian Gulf, Jordan, and Iraq are disappearing; (2) all US (THAAD & non-THAAD) radars are gone (= US & Israel are blind); (3) interceptor stocks are dwindling: “Israel’s skies are our highway” (= Iranian missiles and drones freely passing). Israel has imposed strict censorship; and satellite companies like Planet Labs have embargoed release of images for two weeks. But China is releasing images.
Iran employs a “Decentralized Mosaic Defense” (difaʿ-i muzayiki) command-and-control (2C) structure: “decapitations” have minimal impacts on 2C. This is evident from Iran’s control of the escalation ladder, and the calibrated responses advancing Iran’s strategic objectives. Notes and observations on difaʿ-i muzayiki.
Arab states are being pummeled by Iran and US is not helping them. Gulf Arabs have realized that the Washington Mafia took their “protection money” but never intended to protect them. Breach of contract. Even the Genovese crime family that ran my NYC neighborhood met their obligations. Arab states will fall under Iran’s sway.
US and Israel view assassinations as a straight line to “victory.” But killing leaders and generals will not collapse nation-states with sound political-military structures. The assumption that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) rests on a “cult of personality”—Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei—is facile. Assassinations have unintended consequences.
Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.
Iran now treats hostile rhetoric as casus belli—preemption is on the table. As nuclear and missile programs recover, could Tehran launch blitz to shatter Israel’s OODA loop and paralyze its inner rings before Tel Aviv can move? First mover seizes initiative…
Iran, courtesy of Trump and Netanyahu, has achieved nuclear ambiguity. Its nuclear sites and 408kg trove of highly-enriched uranium survive. Mossad/CIA spies (“IAEA inspectors”) have no physical access to sites; CCTV at every site is off. Iran’s nuclear program, formerly the world’s most open and inspected program, has gone black.
Perspectives 
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