History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Iran employs a “Decentralized Mosaic Defense” (difaʿ-i muzayiki) command-and-control (2C) structure: “decapitations” have minimal impacts on 2C. This is evident from Iran’s control of the escalation ladder, and the calibrated responses advancing Iran’s strategic objectives. Notes and observations on difaʿ-i muzayiki.
Arab states are being pummeled by Iran and US is not helping them. Gulf Arabs have realized that the Washington Mafia took their “protection money” but never intended to protect them. Breach of contract. Even the Genovese crime family that ran my NYC neighborhood met their obligations. Arab states will fall under Iran’s sway.
US and Israel view assassinations as a straight line to “victory.” But killing leaders and generals will not collapse nation-states with sound political-military structures. The assumption that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) rests on a “cult of personality”—Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei—is facile. Assassinations have unintended consequences.
Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.
Iran now treats hostile rhetoric as casus belli—preemption is on the table. As nuclear and missile programs recover, could Tehran launch blitz to shatter Israel’s OODA loop and paralyze its inner rings before Tel Aviv can move? First mover seizes initiative…
Iran, courtesy of Trump and Netanyahu, has achieved nuclear ambiguity. Its nuclear sites and 408kg trove of highly-enriched uranium survive. Mossad/CIA spies (“IAEA inspectors”) have no physical access to sites; CCTV at every site is off. Iran’s nuclear program, formerly the world’s most open and inspected program, has gone black.
Taking a short break. I leave you with the video recording of “O Iran” (Ey Iran) performed by the Tehran Symphony Orchestra at Azadi Square following Iran’s victory over Israel. Brief history of the song, its composer, and lyricist, are included.
Iran won. Trump’s confidant, Steve Bannon, explains on video. My amplifications in essay.
Israel wants end to war; Iran plans to prolong war. Israel cannot survive without help; but Iran is prepared to fight alone and grind Israel into capitulating. Israel discovers that “plans don’t survive first contact with the enemy.” Netanyahu dials 1-800-USA HELP.
Iran FM: “no negotiations” with U.S.; Iran Prez: “unconditional end” to war; Iranians unite: millions join anti-Israel/pro-Iran rallies from Ahvaz to Mashhad; “legacy media” propaganda seeks to “manufacture consent” for U.S.-Iran War; air superiority myth (update); Iran pounds Israel.
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