Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
1. Economic Problems Increase Inside Israel
The Israeli economy is in parlous condition: Fitch downgraded Israel’s credit rating. This follows downgrades by Moody’s and S&P. Bankruptcies are rising (46,000 so far); tourism has collapsed; the shekel has fallen; areas in the north have been de-populated (estimated 200,000 settlers have fled); and an estimated 500,000 colonizers have left Israel for their original homelands. Uncertainty as to timing and extent of Iran’s response is harming the Israeli economy.
“Be patient…this is part of the punishment. This is part of retaliation,” said Sayyid Nasrallah in his speech of 6 August 2024:
2. Israel’s Military Weaknesses Become More Exposed
Nasrallah: “Israel lost its strength and capabilities in its defense. The proof of this is in Iran’s True Promise Operation. Who defended the Israelis? The Americans, the French, some Arab countries. Biden said, ‘if it weren’t for us, Iran would have crushed you’.”
Israel is indeed weak, and every day that passes exposes their weaknesses; for example, the fearful statements and actions by Israel’s protectors in the “collective west.” Fear in D.C. and in European capitals that Israel will be hit has resulted in frantic telephone calls to Tehran by foreign ministers and heads of government (Stolz, Macron, Starmer, et al.). Israel’s enablers have dangled bait—sanctions relief, ceasefire in Gaza, etc.—to no avail. Threats followed: U.S. warned Iran of “severe consequences. Consequences like war? Sanctions? The Ayatollahs were quaking in their sandals. Tehran’s response to Washington was a New York classic: va fangool.
3. Delay Strike Until After Arbaʿin
The Arbaʿin pilgrimage to the shrine of Imam Husayn Karbala in Iraq witnesses the movement of millions of Shiʿa from Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, Lebanon, Pakistan, etc. An attack after 25th/26th August 2024, when pilgrims have returned home, makes sense at multiple levels.
4. “Don’t Fire Till You See the Whites of Their Eyes”
The Pentagon has deployed eighteen ships, including the Carrier Strike Group USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the Middle East, to “deter” Iran. USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is on its way to the Middle East from the Pacific and is expected to arrive in around fifteen days. USS Georgia, an Ohio class submarine, is being re-positioned in the eastern Mediterranean.
“Don’t Fire Till You See the Whites of Their Eyes” is an expression from the American Revolutionary War. If Iran is compelled to fight the U.S., it behooves Tehran to have their enemy’s principal naval assets situated deep inside Iran’s “Ballistic Missile ‘Ring of Fire’.” This is a bold statement. I hold the view that Iran has the capacity to destroy most U.S. Navy assets, including aircraft carriers. In the Battle of Tsushima (May 1905), the Japanese destroyed the Russian fleet. Iran can achieve a similar political, psychological, and military victory. The Islamic World will cheer Iran if it succeeds.
As Hasan Nasrallah said, “slowly, slowly.” Patience. Planning. Timing.
Perspectives 
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