History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.
Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.
Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.
A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?
Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.
As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.
Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?
Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?
This is an updated post. A third video has been released by Hizballah of their Hudhud ISR UAV penetrating deep into Occupied Palestine and acquiring imagery of sensitive intelligence and military assets of the Israel Occupation Force. Like the first two surveillance videos, this, too has caused “shock and awe” in Israel. Fresh commentary and four videos are at my website.
Information is just coming in on the “Yafa” (“Jaffa”; called “Tel Aviv” by Israelis) UAV that struck near the U.S. Consulate in Tel Aviv on Friday, 19 July 2024, ca. 3:10 a.m. Preliminary details on the “kamikaze” drone, along with three videos, are in the article.
Perspectives 
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