Change in Iran’s Public Posture on ICBMs and Nuclear Weapons

Updated 17 Nov 2024 with two new video links and commentary: Former Iran FM Kamal Kharrazi stated that Tehran reserves right to revise its nuclear doctrine if the country faces an “existential threat;” and that Iran has voluntarily restricted the range of its ballistic missiles out of respect for “European concerns”; however, since Europe does not respect Iran’s security concerns, Tehran need not “be bound by their sensitivities.” Ayatollah Khamenei sent an enigmatic tweet: “We will definitely do everything necessary to prepare the Iranian nation for confronting the Arrogant Powers [plural].”

Geography in History

Geography plays key roles in shaping history, which is less appreciated by policy makers today than by pre-modern peoples. An essay with titles relating to geography and theory; Eurasian Steppe; Greater Iran; climate, environment, and Eurasian migrations.

Iran’s Military Budget Increase: Context

Reports state that Iran will increase its military budget from an estimated $10 billion per annum to about $23 billion for the next year (solar year 1404/2025–26 AD). Back of the envelope calculations are offered.

Israel’s Failed Attack and Iran’s Air Defense Systems

Iran’s air defenses (AD) excelled against IDF during Israel’s strikes on 25/26 October 2024. IDF encountered “an unknown air defense system”—probably advanced anti-stealth technology—and aborted the bombing mission. If stealth technology was defeated, the foundations of US/NATO/IDF air superiority collapses. Focus here, however, is on implications for Iranian national security. If Iran does indeed have effective AD systems, while Israel’s AD systems can be penetrated by IRGC (twice proven), Iran can open the gates of hell for Israel.

Why Iran Must Respond to Israel’s Aggression

Israel attacked Iran on 25/26 October 2024. The strike failed (miserably) but killed one Iranian civilian and four soldiers, and caused minimal damage to military facilities. Tehran has indicated that harsh response is forthcoming. The essay articulates reasons why Iran must deliver a harsh strike against Israel.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Fork in the Road?

A scientific report claims that Iran can enrich 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium (WGU) in one week with its newly-installed centrifuges at Ferdows; and produce nine nuclear weapons in one month. Iran’s new president seeks to re-open negotiations with U.S. on the nuclear program. Which road will Tehran take?

Ruminations on Iran’s Retaliation

Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s 31 July strike on Iranian soil. Many commentators have speculated on the delay. Let me join in the speculation. I believe the delay benefits Iran. Four reasons for Iran to exhibit patience are given in the essay.

On Escalation Domination, High-Value Targets, and Black Swans

As we await Iran’s response to Israel’s violation of Iranian sovereignty, quick looks at escalation domination and escalation ladders, high-value targets for the Axis of Resistance, and “Black Swan” events.

Russia-Iran Military Exchanges: Part 4

Russian heavy cargo transports are ferrying equipment to Iran. Precise contents unknown (of course) but Russian electronic warfare equipment was just spotted deployed inside Iran. What else is Moscow doing for, or sending to, Tehran?

Iran’s ICBM Program

Donald Trump tweeted that if he is assassinated by Iranian agents, “I hope that America obliterates Iran.” Tehran initiated an ICBM program shortly after he was elected (2020). It is expected to be operational in the near future (probably by January 2025, when the next POTUS is inaugurated. Would POTUS be willing to sacrifice cities on the American eastern seaboard if s/he launches a nuclear strike against Iran?