Panic in Israel

Israel, like a nasty and impetuous schoolboy who committed a serious offense, fears retribution as he sits trembling outside the headmaster’s office. He knows that he will be punished for his wickedness, but he knows not the form of the headmaster’s wrath. So, he sweats and shakes in terror.

Kirman and Moscow Terror Attacks: The Tajikistan Connection

The attackers in Moscow and Kirman were from Tajikistan. ISIS-K seeks to topple Tajikistan’s government, yet ISIS-K have not conducted major attacks in Tajikistan. Just one incident in 2022: seven rockets fired by ISIS-K from Afghanistan into Tajikistan that ‘struck Tajik military facilities.’ Major attacks perpetrated by Tajik nationals allegedly with ISIS-K have been against enemies of the U.S. and/or Israel: Russia and Iran.

How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’?

Iran and its allies are using a calibrated approach to increase temperatures in the Middle East until the water boils the American and Israeli ‘frogs’ to death. This is a timeless strategy in asymmetrical warfare. The Taliban used to say, ‘Americans have watches but we have the time.’ Time is on IRGC’s side.

Ban Iran Air from Europe?

Another bad idea by Europe and US. Tehran counters ‘maximum pressure’ with ‘maximum pressure.’ If G7/US go ahead and ban Iran Air, Iran will respond forcefully. Ukraine and Israel will pay a heftier price. Here’s why and how.

Iran-Yemen SITREP

Three distinct but related reports of note from today. (1) US engaged in indirect talks with Iran through Omani mediator: (1) talks were on curbing Iran’s expanding nuclear program; (2) and US asked Iran to throttle Ansarallah’s activities; and (3) Ansarallah tested a hypersonic missile. The reports indicate that major escalation is likely in Red Sea/Gulf of Aden.

Red Sea and Gulf of Aden SITREP

Ansarallah’s spokesman Brig.-Gen. Yahya Sariʾi announces new phase of operations against US and UK naval coalition that included a swarm attack of 37 drones at naval vessels; and several anti-ship ballistic missiles at an American merchant vessel.

Tehran’s Responses to ‘Maximum Pressure Campaign’ and ‘Bomb Iran’ Threats

Nobody likes a bully; and USA is a loud-mouthed bully. Iranians resent 125+ years of foreign interference in their affairs. Tehran has responded to USA’s ‘maximum pressure’ and ‘bomb Iran’ threats by enhancing Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capacities. IRGC can ‘kill’ US aircraft carriers outside Persian Gulf. Iran is prepared for an ‘inevitable war.’ Washington underestimates Iranian tenacity and military technologies

War of the Flea in the Red Sea

Robert Taber’s classic study offers insights into Ansarallah’s (Houthi’s) Red Sea campaign. Five characteristics of ‘protracted war’ apply to Yemen. ‘Popular support’ in is with Ansarallah. This is demonstrated every Friday by the millions of Yemenis that assemble after prayers to support Palestine and oppose U.S./UK airstrikes. Even Ansarallah’s civil war enemies have drifted to their camp.

Ansarallah and Royal Navy: Lesson from the Falklands War

Argentina’s sinking of HMS Sheffield in 1982 offers a lesson on how Ansarallah can defeat British aggression against the Yemeni people. Sheffield’s demise sent shockwaves through Britain. But Britain had a path to victory in the Falklands that it does not have in the Red Sea. If Ansarallah sinks a Royal Navy ship, which they can, it will likely end the British mission. It almost certainly will end Rishi Sunak’s premiership.

Lebanon-Syria-Hezbollah SITREP

Iran is supplying its Khordad-15 air defense system to the Syrian and Lebanese armies. Since October 2023, Iranian cargo aircraft have been using Russia airbases in Syria. A report claims that Hezbollah sends its older weapons to Russia for the Ukraine War; while advanced Iranian weaponry is safely delivered to Hezbollah through Russian airbases in Syria.