Panic in Israel

Israel, like a nasty and impetuous schoolboy who committed a serious offense, fears retribution as he sits trembling outside the headmaster’s office. He knows that he will be punished for his wickedness, but he knows not the form of the headmaster’s wrath. So, he sweats and shakes in terror.

Update: Former Swiss Intelligence Officer Rejects ISIS Involvement in Terror Attacks in Moscow

Col. Jacques Baud (Swiss Strategic Intelligence Service, Retd.) during an interview with Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (U.S. Army, Ret.) stated categorically that the attacks were not committed by ISIS. Furthermore, he said, he had received indicators in February 2024 that Ukraine was preparing an atrocity in Russia.

Kremlin’s Next Moves: Decapitation, ‘De-NATO-fication,’ Regime Change

Analysis of Kremlin’s reactions to Crocus terror attack. Escalations will include decapitation strikes against GUR and SBU targets, but Zelensky is safe—for now. Strikes against NATO assets and the 12 CIA centers in Ukraine are likely. But strategy of the Russian Army and Kremlin—advancing to the Dnieper and regime change in Kiev—will not change.

Fortifications of the Islamic World: Herat’s ‘Kartid Wall’

Pre-modern cities of the Islamic World often had a perimeter wall to protect the city’s suburbs from predators seeking to plunder the city and seize men, women, and children to be used as slaves or sold in slave markets. Herat, Iran (now part of Afghanistan), had such a perimeter wall

How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’?

Iran and its allies are using a calibrated approach to increase temperatures in the Middle East until the water boils the American and Israeli ‘frogs’ to death. This is a timeless strategy in asymmetrical warfare. The Taliban used to say, ‘Americans have watches but we have the time.’ Time is on IRGC’s side.

Ban Iran Air from Europe?

Another bad idea by Europe and US. Tehran counters ‘maximum pressure’ with ‘maximum pressure.’ If G7/US go ahead and ban Iran Air, Iran will respond forcefully. Ukraine and Israel will pay a heftier price. Here’s why and how.

Iran-Yemen SITREP

Three distinct but related reports of note from today. (1) US engaged in indirect talks with Iran through Omani mediator: (1) talks were on curbing Iran’s expanding nuclear program; (2) and US asked Iran to throttle Ansarallah’s activities; and (3) Ansarallah tested a hypersonic missile. The reports indicate that major escalation is likely in Red Sea/Gulf of Aden.

Red Sea and Gulf of Aden SITREP

Ansarallah’s spokesman Brig.-Gen. Yahya Sariʾi announces new phase of operations against US and UK naval coalition that included a swarm attack of 37 drones at naval vessels; and several anti-ship ballistic missiles at an American merchant vessel.

‘Coalition of the Sanctioned’: Iran–Russia–China ‘Tripartite Alliance’ (Part 1)

Essay evaluates the maturing ‘Tripartite Alliance’—Russia, China, Iran—at the two-year anniversary of the Ukraine War, which fused the Alliance. Anger at U.S. and NATO transformed hitherto wary allies into partners. Part 1, background; Part 2, cooperation—with emphasis on Iran-Russia military and intelligence exchanges. How will the Iran-Russia military relationship impact on U.S. and Israel?

Tehran’s Responses to ‘Maximum Pressure Campaign’ and ‘Bomb Iran’ Threats

Nobody likes a bully; and USA is a loud-mouthed bully. Iranians resent 125+ years of foreign interference in their affairs. Tehran has responded to USA’s ‘maximum pressure’ and ‘bomb Iran’ threats by enhancing Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capacities. IRGC can ‘kill’ US aircraft carriers outside Persian Gulf. Iran is prepared for an ‘inevitable war.’ Washington underestimates Iranian tenacity and military technologies