History, Religion, Politics, Culture, and Travels in the Islamic World
US and Israel view assassinations as a straight line to “victory.” But killing leaders and generals will not collapse nation-states with sound political-military structures. The assumption that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) rests on a “cult of personality”—Ayatollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei—is facile. Assassinations have unintended consequences.
Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying the US in the Mideast. Trump painted himself into a corner: if his “big, beautiful armada” does not yield benefits that would allow him to “declare victory” and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO Trump). If Iran concedes, it looks weak. Israel sees the buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn’t waste: they may strike to drag US into a war.
Iran has access to China wide-ranging satellite network. The network delivers all-weather, day and night imaging (stills and video), SIGINT, and real-time updates on locations of aircraft and vessels. Real-time ELINT is indispensable for successful strikes.
Iran now treats hostile rhetoric as casus belli—preemption is on the table. As nuclear and missile programs recover, could Tehran launch blitz to shatter Israel’s OODA loop and paralyze its inner rings before Tel Aviv can move? First mover seizes initiative…
The “collective west” pontificates about democracy, freedom, civil rights, and civil liberties in Iran, but Iran’s experiences (ca. 1860s to 1979) with foreign powers are of political domination and resource extraction. Organic democratic reforms in Iran were quashed by the west.
Recently-declassified meeting memoranda reveal Putin’s worrisome opinions of Iran: “rogue state,” “they’re quite nuts,” “they are not primitive people: it was quite a surprise to me.” Putin plots with Bush to curtail Iran’s uranium enrichment; and raises with Bush the possibility of military strikes on Iran: “Then we need to do something. What? Strike?” By “we” does Putin mean joint US-Russian strikes?
Reza Shah Pahlavi, Maryam Rajavi (Mujahideen-e Khalq), and María Corina Machado have sold “regime change” to their U.S. and Israeli patrons, but sales pitches of troops being “greeted as liberators,” with freedom to plunder the victim’s oil & gas, will prove bogus and deadly. Ahmad Chalabi, the darling of Iraq War neocons, is the example.
China’s satellite network provides Iran with 24/7/365 coverage and real-time updates: SIGINT, terrain mapping, telemetry; radar, optical, and infrared all-weather/day & night imaging, allowing Iran to precisely strike Israeli and U.S. targets. No China, no “boom, boom, Tel Aviv!”
Iran, courtesy of Trump and Netanyahu, has achieved nuclear ambiguity. Its nuclear sites and 408kg trove of highly-enriched uranium survive. Mossad/CIA spies (“IAEA inspectors”) have no physical access to sites; CCTV at every site is off. Iran’s nuclear program, formerly the world’s most open and inspected program, has gone black.
Analysis of SM-2, SM-3, SM-6, PAC-3, and THAAD interceptors used (10/23 to 08/25), costs, and remaining stockpiles. If Iran enters round two of the Iran-Israel War holding nuclear deterrence, Iranian missile barrages can pound Israel into capitulation.
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